Abstract：We use county-level panel data to estimate the long-run effect of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution on mortality in China. Our causal inference relies on changes in local pollution via wind transport and demand shocks of Chinese products from export destinations amid the global economic crisis during the late 2000s. We find an economically and statistically significant impact of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and the effect is the largest for those 65 years and older. Using the substantial variation in pollution levels both across time and space in China, we provide evidence of a concave dose-response function, with diminishing marginal mortality impacts of pollution at levels beyond those in developed nations.

Keywords：PM2.5，Mortality，Dose-response function，Nonlinearity