科学研究

ABSTRACT:

This paper analyzes the economic impacts of a national emissions trading scheme in 31 Chinese provinces. The emissions trading system is assumed to accomplish China’s emissions reduction targets set under the Paris Climate Agreement. A multi-regional, multi-sectoral, recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed for the analysis. The results show that the emissions trading scheme would reduce provincial CO2 emissions by 4%–22% relative to the baseline levels in 2030. It would cause the provincial GDP to change from -4.6% to 1.8% relative to the 2030 baseline levels. The magnitudes of the impacts on provincial economies and CO2 emissions are sensitive to initial emissions allocation rules. Some provinces that face GDP loss under one rule of emissions allocation would experience GDP gains under the other rules, and vice versa. However, emissions-intensive provincial economies—Neimenggu, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi—are found to experience higher GDP loss irrespective of the allowance allocation rules. Meanwhile, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are found to experience higher GDP under all the rules of allowances allocation.

Keywords: Climate change mitigation, emission trading system, carbon pricing, economic impact of carbon pricing, emission quota allocation, auction, dynamic multi-regional CGE model;

原载于 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (SCI, Q1, 2020 Impact Factor = 12.110)

摘要：

本文分析了全国碳市场运行对中国31个省份的经济影响。本文首先假定全国碳市场被要求帮助实现中国在巴黎协定下设定的减排目标，以此建立一个多区域、多部门的递推动态可计算一般均衡模型展开分析。结果表明：全国碳市场运行将使全国各省的二氧化碳排放量相对于2030年基准水平减少4％～22％，并导致各省GDP相对于2030年基准水平有-4.6％～+1.8％的变化幅度。 全国碳市场对各省经济增长和碳排放量的影响程度对初始碳配额的分配规则很敏感，某个省份在一种碳配额分配规则下将面临GDP损失但在另一种碳配额分配规则下却可能出现GDP增长，反之亦然。然而，无论采取本文设定的哪种碳配额分配规则，相比2030年基准情景而言，部分碳排放密集型的省份-内蒙古，宁夏，山西和陕西-都将面临相对较高的GDP损失，与此同时福建、广东、广西和辽宁这些省份则将面临不同程度的GDP增长。

关键词：减缓气候变化，碳排放交易系统，碳定价，碳定价的经济影响，碳配额分配，碳拍卖，动态多区域CGE模型。

原文链接：《ScienceDirect》