科学研究

Abstract:

Many countries have undertaken market-oriented reforms of the power sector over the past four decades. However, the literature has not investigated whether the reforms have contributed to economic growth. This study assesses the potential macroeconomic impacts of following the market-based principle in operating and expanding the power system, an important ingredient of the power sector reform launched in China in 2015. The study uses a hybrid modeling approach by coupling a top-down computable general equilibrium model with a bottom-up energy sector TIMES model. The study finds that electricity prices in China would be 20 percent lower than the country is likely to experience in 2020 if the country follows the market principle to expand and operate the power system. The price reduction would spill over throughout the economy, resulting in an increase in the gross domestic product of more than one percent (or more than a billion US dollars) in 2020. It would also have positive impacts on most economic indicators, including household income and international trade. The findings quantitatively highlight the importance of implementing the 2015 power sector reforms in China and further expanding the initiatives in the future.

Keywords:

Power sector reforms；macroeconomic impacts；computable general equilibrium modeling；power sector planning; China

原载于：Energy Policy (SCI, Q1, 2020 Impact Factor = 6.142)

摘要：在过去四十年中，许多国家对电力部门进行了市场化改革。然而，已有研究缺少对电力部门市场化改革是否有助于经济增长的分析。电力系统市场化运营及扩建作为中国2015年启动的电力市场化改革的重要组成部分，本研究评估了其潜在的宏观经济影响。本研究采用混合建模的方法，将自上而下的可计算一般均衡模型与自下而上的能源部门TIMES模型进行耦合。研究发现：如果中国遵循市场原则扩建和运营电力系统，中国2020年的电价水平有可能降低20%，这一电价下降将惠及整个经济系统并将导致中国2020年GDP有超过1%的增幅（或大于十亿美元），同时还将对包括居民收入和国际贸易在内的大多数经济指标产生正向影响。本研究基于定量分析结果强调了中国2015年启动的电力部门市场化改革以及在未来进一步深化此项改革的重要性。

关键词：电力部门改革；宏观经济影响；可计算一般均衡模型；电力部门规划；中国

原文链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421521003797?dgcid=author